tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7077008817248997090.comments2013-03-08T09:56:55.461-08:00The Big BarnMario Montoyahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05353565598118839374noreply@blogger.comBlogger15125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7077008817248997090.post-58556589691867382042013-03-08T09:56:55.461-08:002013-03-08T09:56:55.461-08:00The difference is that you were a pro and have yea...The difference is that you were a pro and have years of experience managing people's money. This article just shows that very few people can actually make money because it's #$!@# hard.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7077008817248997090.post-84741832322065536142012-12-14T07:25:12.448-08:002012-12-14T07:25:12.448-08:00edit - monetary policy with unemployment rateedit - monetary policy with unemployment rateAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7077008817248997090.post-28415904595402749092012-12-14T07:23:34.036-08:002012-12-14T07:23:34.036-08:00Historically there's only been one factor that...Historically there's only been one factor that has implications for inflation - wages. That's why the fed has tied in monetary policy with rates. Globalization and the weaken position of labor unions has pushed up unemployment and kept wages down. These two factors aren't going away anytime soon.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7077008817248997090.post-24816986319980930842012-10-18T07:05:03.106-07:002012-10-18T07:05:03.106-07:00Hi Mario
I am looking at the current S&P 500 c...Hi Mario<br />I am looking at the current S&P 500 charts currently building a high base from which to rally for the next several weeks. I am not a chartist but believe charts have a place in one's investment evaluation. My hunch is we will break out to the upside as you have said. I think Romney doing well will assist the ascent. I like when the gross market outlook is negative, it is usually positive for stocks. I believe that we are currently in a sweet spot.<br /> <br />However, I am concerned about the situation after January 2, 2013 where stocks with gains are highly likely to be sold initially, To what support level I do not know.<br />RickAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00338773274052025174noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7077008817248997090.post-23077060534647512152012-10-02T04:45:13.375-07:002012-10-02T04:45:13.375-07:00Good Morning Mario
As we discussed a suspected reb...Good Morning Mario<br />As we discussed a suspected rebound in banking shares a few weeks ago: Now this morning: "Credit Suisse lifts US Banks to overweight". I am anticipating this will be the first of many, as analysts pile on upgrades in the banking sector. My hunch is that banking shares have quite a ways to go from here. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00338773274052025174noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7077008817248997090.post-75629150222426456002012-09-27T07:21:59.771-07:002012-09-27T07:21:59.771-07:00Hi Mario
The market has a very short memory! Blank...Hi Mario<br />The market has a very short memory! Blankfein comments a day or two ago seem to have more of a negative effect on the market than the bold unexpected long term sustained Fed action. The market has been so negative for so long and most negatives have been priced in, in my opinion. I believe the market is under-bought and there is a lot of money waiting to buy on the dips until year end. Higher we hopefully will go from here.<br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00338773274052025174noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7077008817248997090.post-66625027527315435802012-09-19T06:35:40.702-07:002012-09-19T06:35:40.702-07:00Hi Mario, I'm a new follower to your blog, and...Hi Mario, I'm a new follower to your blog, and look forward to your entries as I believe our investment philosophies have a lot in common. In response to comments to this post I think one financial name that could benefit from a housing recovery is Wells Fargo & Co. due to better credit performance from current mortgages, and growth in fees from loan balances and refinancing. Also, its mortgage business has generated record applications (Up 90% from a year ago), in addition to strong refinancing applications. I think WFC has the ability to succeed over peers through cost savings, and buybacks, and that an increase in home prices and loan growth will help push WFC higher. Its 2.50% dividend yield should not be overlooked as well.Jimmy J.https://www.blogger.com/profile/09450281902236712523noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7077008817248997090.post-23181185458962458492012-09-18T07:35:49.469-07:002012-09-18T07:35:49.469-07:00Hi Mario,
Great to hear from you. As I mentioned ...Hi Mario,<br /><br />Great to hear from you. As I mentioned to you when we met I am banking on a financials rebound. My hunch is these banks that are trading below tangible book value will gradually revert towards their full valuation as their balance sheets improve as you have mentioned. I think improving real estate valuation and this most recent Fed move will propel bank stocks higher. I think the Fed induced rally has only partially been realized. I am suspecting a substantial leg up very soon before the election. I believe the banking rebound will help move the market higher. <br /><br />Here is a little something you might find very entertaining.<br /><br />My trading partner and I always use the profound thought below to describe the talking heads on CNBC, etc....<br /><br /><br />Always remember, There are two types of people in this world:<br /><br />1) Those who don't know<br /><br />2) Those who don't know they don't know.<br /><br /><br />I know this first hand, Hahaha!Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00338773274052025174noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7077008817248997090.post-86434014141591950232012-09-16T18:08:17.074-07:002012-09-16T18:08:17.074-07:00Hi Rick,
Thanks for the comment! I agree that th...Hi Rick,<br /><br />Thanks for the comment! I agree that the Fed was a bit of a surprise. It seems plain that Mr. Bernanke, is not letting the market go down if he can help it. It is very strong medicine that we will be having 0% rates for the next few years. It should help the banks' balance sheets. Not sure about any multiplier effect rippling through the economy. Banks are as stringent as they have been for the last few years - not lending any money. Of course, we have to be careful to get what we are hoping for as that is what got us into trouble in the first place.<br /><br />I agree that the market is underinvested in stocks and that is going to support or propel the market higher for the time being. Barring any war or supply disruptions in oil, the market should continue upward. I like moving my exposure closer to my 45% benchmark, but only with call options which I find priced a bit cheaply.<br /><br />Tax issues have always been tricky for me to evaluate. I personally don't like making decisions based on taxes, but it not doubt has an impact on long term returns and is an important factor.Mario Montoyahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05353565598118839374noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7077008817248997090.post-29428646660358516642012-09-16T12:26:04.892-07:002012-09-16T12:26:04.892-07:00Hi Mario, I think the market has room to run as th...Hi Mario, I think the market has room to run as this fed position is most unprecedented. My hunch is most managers were caught off guard by the bold fed position (had already sold on the news early) and will now gradually dedicate capital playing catch-up and culminating in a crescendo by year end. A near term pullback would be expected at any point of course because we have moved up quite a bit in a short period. I suspect a near year end high, because of the usual tax implications of selling earlier in 2012 will result in an earlier tax bill in April 2013. This is of course is instead of delaying the sale to Jan 2 2013 which results in a April 2014 tax bill as you know, which most investors will do. This is if God willing Romney is elected. If Obama is leading, I look for a dampening effect as we get closer toward Nov 2, 2012. But who knows? Rick<br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00338773274052025174noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7077008817248997090.post-38788448271344621632012-08-18T12:10:58.131-07:002012-08-18T12:10:58.131-07:00Mario - I enjoyed reading through your blog. I re...Mario - I enjoyed reading through your blog. I really do enjoy investing and appreciate your analytic perspective.Ernie Prudentehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18076417635108168024noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7077008817248997090.post-29078571870088344882012-05-11T15:18:23.644-07:002012-05-11T15:18:23.644-07:00I've heard this before! I add QCOM to the list...I've heard this before! I add QCOM to the list.J.Steinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13672035937052290346noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7077008817248997090.post-33535605704307898592012-05-10T12:07:43.195-07:002012-05-10T12:07:43.195-07:00blue horseshoe loves anacott steelblue horseshoe loves anacott steelAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7077008817248997090.post-6729659494695019232012-04-13T10:03:28.161-07:002012-04-13T10:03:28.161-07:00RIMM is going to zero.RIMM is going to zero.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7077008817248997090.post-47347510361524646992012-04-02T17:18:58.829-07:002012-04-02T17:18:58.829-07:00Tell me more!Tell me more!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com