Monday, May 21, 2012

A virtuous day, apparently.  All is well in the world as long as China supports growth.

We have been on a very negative track and as I posted on my last entry, it was starting to look a little less interesting for bond buyers which would ultimately prove to be good for stocks.  I do not know if today is the start of that turnaround, but at the minimum it is a breather from the relentless selling of the last few days.

I sold out of at least one of my specs -BAC- trying to make sure I heed my own advice of not holding on to bad ideas too long.  I fall prey to it like many people and it is a struggle.  It is one reason why many people trade with stops.  I am not the biggest fan of stops because in my career, stops gave too much information to my broker counterparties.  Of course, I should not have nearly the same misgivings when trading at the individual level, but I guess I am an old dog these days.

I still retain my speculative positions in AVP and BBY and TEF.  All out of favor positions which I should be out of for all purposes, but I am not.  I have them on the short leash as I had mentioned and can pull out in disgust any time.  Today would probably be a good day (up days are great to sell into) but hope springs eternal!

My core positions are doing ok except for CAT which has been blasted, but I trust that China speaking about growth would help the industrials.  I think it is a good long term buy.

My bond trading has been better than my stock picking.  Today I sold out of my 7 year TIPS bonds.  With real yields at -1% or so, I just don't see much upside.  Instead I will be looking to add to my 2040 TIPS on a pullback.  Currently they are trading at 0.5% real yield.  No great shakes, but still positive.

Muni's have done well.  MHN has been a good position that I have added to.  I think NY will be in good position overall in terms of municipal financing.  No place is perfect, but NY has a lot of support and this fund yields over 6% tax free.

I also like Bank loans and I recently added to VVR which is like a high yield bond bet, but with senior securities which have floating rates.  So if we get some growth surprise (hope springs eternal...) these notes should do well.

 

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