Thursday, June 21, 2012

Nothing new and exciting as I see it.  The Fed continued TWIST butI do not see this as a game changer.  If anything it reinforces the idea that we need to go further out on the curve (longer maturity bonds)  to get some return and the Fed will be there to back you up.  I think this is probably safe for the next few years.  I am looking to buy back some long term TIPS if we ever get any pull back in bond prices, but I am not too hopeful.  The biggest event that could cause a drop in bond prices (government bonds) would be some sort of positive development in Europe.  I can see that happening, but perhaps not until the late fall or into next year (vacations, and all that (yes, there was some sarcasm there)).

Stocks will wallow along.  Emerging market slowdowns will impact our stocks to the extent it means a slow down in global growth.  Any companies that have a large business outside the US will be impacted.  A few are in my portfolio and are very painful - CAT, ETN, PG.  These all rely on foreign revenues and have been chopped by 25%.  I think this is a bit overdone and still like the names but though it is the correct thing to do,  it is painful to keep adding to them.

VZ has been a real star as have been most telecoms.  I think there is a good long term story there and still like the stocks at these prices.  There is a chance for a pullback, but it is too difficult to be too cute timing the market.  Better to hold on for the ride.

JCP is interesting at these prices.  They have been beaten up badly but they have a reasonable team and a good brand.  This could be a good cyclical play, meaning they will do well when the economy improves.  If you think that is close, then consider buying some JCP as a speculative position (not core since no dividends).

Overall, I am still banking on dividends and eventual economic growth leading to higher stock prices/lower bond prices.




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