Thursday, July 5, 2012

As of yesterday, I have started to grow a bit scared of the rally.  While I still like my stocks, I have decided to start selling some SPY DEC 140 CALLS for 4.5 ish on a portion of my equity portfolio (about 50% currently).  This is not for the squeamish, there is a lot of risk in doing this so I would not recommend this to everyone, but just in case someone is interested, here is my thought process:  

The idea is that my portfolio is designed to mimic the S&P 500 with a bit more income.  So, I believe my portfolio will at least keep pace with the S&P.  I am willing to give up some upside in this market in order to gather some more income.  The 140 call plus the premium of 4.5 will give me a bit less than 6% upside on the net equity portfolio through December 21.  I would be content with that outcome.

For those not predisposed to trade options, I think holding the course is ok here.  If you have a stock that has really done well for you and is a bit overweight, you would not be wrong to trim the position a little bit.  But, in the end, this is just trimming around the edges. Nothing new has happened.  The market will ebb and flow like waves on the ocean.  Over time, the amount of water will rise as economic growth adds to the total water available, if you will kindly extend the analogy, but there will still be tidal flow, wave action and yes, the occasional "rogue wave".

We want to be on firm enough footing to not be knocked out by the rogue wave and instead benefit from it if it comes by buying more on the pullback.

I still am staying away from government bonds and in high grade bonds in general as I would leave that to only the most conservative investors.  I strongly believe that over the next 5-10 years you will do substantially better in stocks than in government bonds.  If you do need to have bonds, keep maturities short.


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