Bad number of course, so let's take stock:
Negatives:
-Global growth still not helping. In fact US is probably the only engine right now (not new, really).
-Austerity on the fiscal side in Europe and the many in the US pushing for this as well. This is counter-balanced with the loose monetary policy being run by the US and now Japan has joined in.
Positives:
Corporate health is excellent. Continuing to become more efficient.
Bond yields are low. This helps in repairing balance sheets. I suspect this effect is mostly played out. I don't think there is much more to be wrung out here.
I am BUYING down here. Bringing my equity weight up above 40%. I keep getting pummeled by RAX and AAPL - I must be a masochist, but I do believe in the stories here. What I should do is bring their weight down to smaller impact, and replace it with S&P (SPY).
Equities are the best odds game in town. Nothing guaranteed, of course, but the best odds. Treasuries (long duration-TLT) still ok as the global growth picture is the dominant factor here. The TLT has had a nice run up in the last few days, so there may be a pull back. Unfortunately, I sold all of mine so I have none to sell.
If I need cash to buy stocks, I would sell some of the high yield (JNK,HYG) that have done relatively well here.
No comments:
Post a Comment