Monday, June 25, 2012

As a value investor, there is a central tension.  On the one hand, we want there to be stocks that the market undervalues and therefore provide an opportunity for us to purchase undervalued assets.  On the other, the fact that the market doesn't prize them that much means that we don't get the big increase in value in any given period.  It is only through the gradual increase in earnings and dividend payments that we accrue our gains.

Periods like this one test the value investor as there seems to be no respite from bad news and stock prices reflect this with continual downward movement.  We must ask ourselves, has the world changed? (it always does in some ways)  Are we just trying to catch a falling knife? (happens all the time when we fall in love with an idea and we are missing some piece of information)

An example of the latter is CAT (one of my favorites) which is undervalued by any measure, but given that a big piece of it's growth is derived from emerging markets, and those economies are currently at risk of slowing down, there is seemingly no bottom to the stock price!

The answer is to make sure it is appropriately sized in your portfolio and not to treat this like a trade.  If it goes lower, then hopefully you have some powder to add to the position and improve your cost average.

No great ideas from me these days.  Just that I think government bonds are overpriced and your are better off in cash, some municipals and floating rate corporate loans, and stocks.  28%, 21% and 45% are my current approximate weights in those buckets.



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