Monday, December 3, 2012

November performance is updated on the performance tab (+1.13% for the month).  I was quite pleased with overall performance.  Driven mostly by outperformance by the dividend payers relative to the S&P and bonds.

PFF is a preferred equity fund with a heavy concentration in financials.  Currently it yields about 6.3% which I find very attractive.  It is down almost 1% today and I think it is a good buy.  I see banks and other financials continuing to get stronger and the government serving as a backstop.  This is a core holding of mine.  It is trading at around 0% premium so not a big risk from that perspective, unlike MHN, another core holding of mine.  MHN is still at a 5% premium, and in perfectly liquid world, I would sell more than half of it  (especially with capital gains taxes probably going up) and wait to buy it back.  But, it is not particularly liquid and it is easy to impact the price.  The upside to this is when someone does want to get out or get in, we, as astute investors can take advantage of the opportunity and buy or sell into the volume.  Right now, if a big buyer comes in, I will be selling.

TLT.  Yes, rates are low, but I don't see them going higher yet.  Inflation, while present certainly in food, is not impacting enough to show up in the headline numbers.  Growth is still low and the risk is it goes even lower as some form of the fiscal cliff comes to be.  In addition, the fiscal cliff will be seen as good for bonds as it would be a form of discipline which has been lacking in the U.S.  I feel it is important to have some in a balanced portfolio.

I am not so sure though about the credit bet.  High yield/junk bonds and loans will still be ok (I have all of these) but I don't think we get the extra kick from spread compression (junk bond yields coming down relative to treasuries).  So this story would be for the yield which is quite attractive and not for capital gains.

RIMM, just a thought here as I am not a huge fan, but there has been a LOT of bad news here and the stock has stopped going down and actually has rallied a bit.  This type of situation is really difficult for me personally.  I find it hard to buy at this point because I have seen it getting squashed.  And yet, there is some upside here.  VERY speculative.   FB is in the same boat, although it naturally has more upside because it hasn't really screwed up yet.

Energies is an interesting sector.  Other, than dividends, I have not made money on this sector, despite my feeling that this could be a key factor limiting global growth.  Perhaps it is precisely because there will be pressure on energy prices from the search for alternatives.

Healthcare may suffer a similar fate as energy, but the human search for ever longer life quality/lifespan will keep these stocks a good bet.





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