Friday, January 18, 2013



A few days ago, I grew so annoyed with the price action in AAPL that I took the "going down with the ship" approach.  It is now my largest  individual stock holding at about 5% (up from about 3%).  The general idea is that the stock is very cheap based on current earnings and ridiculously cheap based on forward earnings.  Now, the forward earnings may not come to fruition, but I believe they are not as optimistic as one might think.  AAPL has tended to beat estimates precisely because it has done so well and analysts are loathe to seem too optimistic on a stock.  Right now, anyone who has been a naysayer is coming out of the woodwork and the stock is suffering for it.  We shall see when earnings come out on the 24th.  For me, the stock is cheap with insane margins and one of the best brands in the world and still trades at a significant discount to the overall market.  It is worth buying in my book.

Also worth a look for the techies is option volatility.  February calls are trading at 10%  implied volatility which, while overvalued for the current amount of movement, is very cheap in absolute terms.  Therefore, if you have any view, options can be a great way to express it.  I have bought some March calls (as I have said before) and am looking to add in the February expiration.

MHN and VVR are trading at premiums to NAV and so make me a bit nervous for short term pullbacks.  I still like them at NAV.   They are not so liquid so it not so easy to trade them, but if I could have no impact, I would sell them and look to re-establish at a lower price.  At the minimum it is worth watching and if you flows that you can trade against, it is worthwhile.

S is pulling back some, which I think represents an opportunity to build up positions there, which I am doing.

XOM, I am persuaded so sell that stock.  I have done ok with it, but it's dividend is no better than the S&P 500 and I think COP provides a better payout with similar exposure.  CHK is good too.  The payout is lower, but I think the upside is greater and it is a stock that is unloved.

I am trimming my position in JNK as I think high yield bonds in absolute terms are a bit expensive.









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