This is a chart of TLT, the long dated US government bond ETF.  Through most of 2013, the Fed has been buying 85 billion / month.  Previously, in 2012 it was buying 40-45.

A lot has been made of the effect of the bond buying, but I honestly don't see it.  Bonds did not rally substantively in that period.  One can argue then that if they stop buying, then bonds will drop, and that may be as a big buyer will leave the market.  But, tapering does not mean they will sell either.

I would argue that the long term treasury, while affected by supply demand, is more a reflection of growth prospects.  A global one at that.  What are our prospects now versus earlier.  Inflation is no higher, so I would not sell bonds on that basis.

I think the selling is overdone and project a rally in the TLT back to the 110-115 levels.