Monday, October 28, 2013

I updated my portfolio page.

In summary, I am increasingly concerned with valuations and revenues.  I have no doubt that companies can continue to squeeze efficiency, but I do think there will be bouts of concern in the market and so there will be volatility.  We are priced, not for perfection, but not too far from that, I fear.

The PE expansion has been dramatic and I suspect we don't have much to add from that source.  So, it will have to come from earnings.


KMB
I missed the boat selling KMB too early as it led the consumer pack with PE expansion.  Since September 5, the PE went from 16.2 to 18.5.

CLX, LO
As with KMI, the PE expansion has been significant.  I have taken them off of Buy on Dip and just left them at hold.  I could easily be swayed to sell these.

COP is at it's high and while I am a bit nervous, there really is no reason to sell.  The PE stands at 12.4 which is a bump from 11.7 in September, but not alarming.

CLMT
I think everyone is waiting for the shoe to drop on this one.  The dividend is about to be paid.  I suspect it will drop from the current level.  The question is, since everyone expects it, will the stock goes up once we see the "bogeyman".  We just don't know how much the drop is going to be and so there is fear.  I don't have a big position here, but I may exit nonetheless as the volatility can be high.  There has been some positive legal developments and that may provide some upside potential.


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