Wednesday, October 31, 2012

I hope everyone came out ok with Sandy.  We were very fortunate in Eastern Long Island, I think.   I grow increasingly worried, considering the general lack of preparedness, that if we do ever get hit by a real hurricane, it will be a doozy in terms of life and economic damage.

As for investing, I have been quiet the last few weeks.  My equity exposure has remained about 15% and so I have lost sa bit of money this month, but kept it fairly small.  I will publish the numbers after month end.

Speaking of month end, there are some gains from the dividend payers, for example ETN and more consistently MRK and the energy stocks.

I continue to believe these are the best way to build a solid equity portfolio.  I am a bit concerned that AAPL is going to be taken out to the woodshed after having been the darling for quite a while.  I continue to hold it, but we are now down to only slightly above where I bought it a while a go.  I am kicking myself for not selling when the stock was higher as even though the stock appears cheap based on earnings metrics, it's earnings are still susceptible to any disturbances in it's upward trajectory of growth.  Most of the market has serious gains in AAPL and combining that with the rising tax rates, it may be subject to a serious sell off in the near future.

After pondering some more I really like the Sprint (S) deal.  Like any merger arb deal it is a delicate dance and can be thrown off track, but I believe that the deal will pass muster with the FCC and DOJ and receive regulatory permission.  Assuming that, there is over a 20% return to a potential closing date in the middle of the year.    Downside risk is probably in the 10% range, but I place a low probability on that.  A key component is to make sure and elect to tender all of your shares for the $7.30 purchase by Softbank.  You may end up selling more than your expected 55% at that price (and therefore earn a higher return).  I have bought some and will continue to buy regularly with a goal of building a good size position in the 3% range.

I jumped in a bit late to the mortgage bond game with my purchase of NLY and recently AGNC.  I think these are both solid companies but they are leveraged in the mortgage market.  They have suffered recently with the idea that more people are going to refinance and that will put pressure on their margins.  Their yield is outstanding and I still think they are worth a position in an income portfolio.

GE is well off it's high and I think this as solid a company as there is and it pays a 3+% dividend yield to boot.  It along with CAT have been brought down by renewed concerns with global growth.   That of course is a concern but I think the rewards outweigh the risks for GE.

To balance the growth concern I have taken advantage of the sell off in treasury securities (TLT) and bought a bit.  While I don't think they are the best long term investment, I cannot see explosive growth (real or nominal) coming out of nowhere in the near future, so I think the bonds at this price point offer some protection from nasty surprises.







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