Tuesday, October 2, 2012

I updated September performance which I was quite happy with.  Outperformance attributed to stock selection versus the S&P as the dividend payers did well, except for LO, which is turning into a bit of a dog.  GE and VZ and KMB have continued to be stars.

Let's keep an eye on MHN.  I am starting to sell a little bit - 10% because the premium has reached over 5%.  A level that has proven difficult to maintain.  I think this is attributable to the market worrying about tax rates for next year.  The yield is still quite attractive - almost 6% tax free which is nothing to sneeze at!  But, I am trying to get a little cute and trade around - sell when the premium gets too large and buy some extra when it get cheap.

JCP is getting interesting again below 24.  If you recall, I liked it below 22.  After dipping to around 20 it rallied to around 29.  I missed the last dollar as I thought above 28 it was worth selling.  Well, as usual, as long as you can stay in the game, the market gives you new chances to make money.  This stock is turning into a bit of a canary in the coal mine.  Much like CAT with global growth.  Anything the threatens the macro environment will hit these stocks and vice versa.

I thought Mr. Bernanke's speech was quite good yesterday.  I think he is trying to do what he is charged to do with the tools he has at his disposal.  He has admitted previously that monetary policy is a blunt tool.   The consumer is still licking his wounds and pulling in overextended credit and the banks are still rebuilding balance sheets.  The best we can hope for is that we continue to rebuild and at some point we will be in better shape to expand.  Growth will continue to be slow and bond yields will stay low.  Stocks will still be subject to external shocks that would hit values but overall, they are a reasonable bet as corporations continue to get more efficient and benefit from low bond yields.








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