Tuesday, June 18, 2013

I sold 1/3 of my RAX position in keeping with my strategy of using the up moves to sell things that are not your favorites.  Better to have a few great positions than many that are unloved (and thus not analyzed properly).

I also continue to buy JPS and JTP.  In absolute terms, the yield is excellent and risks are low.  I am certain that in this type of economy, the coupon/dividend will be good.  The risk is a quick up move in short term rates.  Here is a quick "back of the envelope" analysis of the situation.

Leverage amount(%) 28%
Borrowing rate 1.2%
distribution rate = 6.9%

portfolio yield= (dist+borr * levg)/(1+levg)
                      approx  5.65%

A 1% point rise in borrowing rates will mean that distribution yield will go down by about 0.3% to 6.6%

In all, I think you are compensated for taking the risk of rates backing up, so I am adding here.  The kicker is that one is buying the assets at a 8+% discount.

Another downside would be liquidity as it is difficult to put on or sell a big position without moving the market against you.  So some of the premium in yield is compensating for that aspect.




No comments: