Thursday, December 12, 2013

A lot of good thoughts here in this article:

In particular the thinking behind not holding cash.  In practice of course, we should hold at least some percentage in order to be able to react to any bargains out there.  That said, there should always be a competition in one's portfolio.  No investment should have a locked spot.  Of course, there can (and should) be factors other than pure value (diversification is an obvious one).

I do like the idea of not getting caught being too macro in thinking.  The reality is that none of us know the future, so we make the best decision we can with the information we have.  Solid companies that are managed well, in a growing market are probably good long term bets and short run swings should not dissuade us.  As I've said before, we can't invest for the end of the world (well, you can, but it's a bit extreme IMHO).  I fall prey to this thinking as well, but playing too defensively is not a good long term recipe for success.

MHN has gotten to a fairly large discount to NAV (-10%).  I am buying some more here.  Even with Puerto Rico and other muni risk, I think it's a good reward/risk ratio.

I ave also bought some TLT using Jan 2015 options (a 1x3 risk reversal if you care).  This will give me some exposure if we get a downdraft in growth expectations.

In addition, I am buying some VWO and other international exposure.  Emerging markets have not done well this year , but if growth prospects improve globally, they should reward investors handsomely.

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