My overall stock exposure high at around 40%. Largely, this is driven by the call options that I had purchased increasing in value and becoming more relevant. For those not familiar with options, call options effectively go with the trend on the upside - they get you more exposed to upside as a stock goes up. So, as the market has gone up, my exposure has increased from the low 30's to as high as 45%. As a result, I am able to play around trading selling when we get some rallies and buying when we get small declines. Normally, you pay for the ability to trade around because there is time premium that declines over time. Currently, options are very cheap, so the premium one has to pay is quite low.
I continue to like options and am rolling my March SPY 155 calls to April 157.
Hopefully that wasn't too obscure. Bottom line is that I like the market in here and the options are a cheap way to get that exposure.
Additionally, JCP has been smacked and a lot of bad news has been discounted. There is value in this brand and while it may continue going down because it is burning through cash, I think it is worth a speculative buy.
QCOM is also worth buying in here (today taking a hit). I am very bullish on the global expansion of personal handheld computing and they are the principal player and a very well run company. This can be a core holding for me. I will probably build a position over the next few weeks.
Wednesday, March 6, 2013
Thursday, February 28, 2013
A stock's price does not matter (to the regular functioning of a business). It is important to remember that, unless a company is actively seeking to raise capital, the stock price does not change the functioning of the company except through incentive plans where employees are paid with stock.
I still like AAPL, but it is feeling like we have some more pain to go through on the downside. While it seems silly to me, the stock needs to go through a complete washout in order to build up again. What will that level be? I don't know but it may have to get to a level where even diehards throw in the towel. I am not selling now, but I am also prepared to keep buying if we get further weakness.
JCP is getting interesting at these levels again, but we may want to wait a few days and let some real panic selling come in. If you can pick it up in the 16 range I think there will be some value there going forward. This is very speculative however.
LO has continued dropping and I have bought some more. It's yield is now 5.7%
We shall see what the sequestration effect will be. I expect a drop and a buying opportunity.
Also, I updated returns for February in the performance tab. My portfolio was up 0.73%.
I still like AAPL, but it is feeling like we have some more pain to go through on the downside. While it seems silly to me, the stock needs to go through a complete washout in order to build up again. What will that level be? I don't know but it may have to get to a level where even diehards throw in the towel. I am not selling now, but I am also prepared to keep buying if we get further weakness.
JCP is getting interesting at these levels again, but we may want to wait a few days and let some real panic selling come in. If you can pick it up in the 16 range I think there will be some value there going forward. This is very speculative however.
LO has continued dropping and I have bought some more. It's yield is now 5.7%
We shall see what the sequestration effect will be. I expect a drop and a buying opportunity.
Also, I updated returns for February in the performance tab. My portfolio was up 0.73%.
Monday, February 25, 2013
Big move today. Europe biting us again perhaps? Certainly the move in bonds would corroborate a flight to safety.
My options are helping eased the pain a little bit, but pain is unavoidable on a day like today. I do not have any particularly good ideas here, other than the standard which is decide whether anything has substantially changed - I do not think so - and then if not then hold the course. Hopefully you still have some dry powder and can use this opportunity to purchase something that you feel is cheap.
I like KO, PG, GE, KMI, AAPL
VVR is at a huge premium and I missed that. I still like the theme, but I would not buy any at this level.
My options are helping eased the pain a little bit, but pain is unavoidable on a day like today. I do not have any particularly good ideas here, other than the standard which is decide whether anything has substantially changed - I do not think so - and then if not then hold the course. Hopefully you still have some dry powder and can use this opportunity to purchase something that you feel is cheap.
I like KO, PG, GE, KMI, AAPL
VVR is at a huge premium and I missed that. I still like the theme, but I would not buy any at this level.
Friday, February 22, 2013
Depending on your moral stance on investing in the "sin" stocks (tobacco, gambling and others) you may view the drop in LO today as an opportunity to buy. I think it is. These stocks are under owned largely because there are large funds that specifically exclude them from their universe. I understand the stance and respect it. That said, it does provide an opportunity for others in the market that are not as concerned.
Bonds today found a bit of footing, as did stocks, when Bullard of the Fed came out with what I mentioned yesterday - that the Fed is not moving anywhere away from the easy policy any time soon. My current thinking is that stocks provide better upside and bonds may take a small hit from here. They are still good, but stocks are better.
I also like RAX and icon tinge to buy on this big adjustment downward. I believe wholeheartedly in the cloud computing and RAX will be well positioned.
Bonds today found a bit of footing, as did stocks, when Bullard of the Fed came out with what I mentioned yesterday - that the Fed is not moving anywhere away from the easy policy any time soon. My current thinking is that stocks provide better upside and bonds may take a small hit from here. They are still good, but stocks are better.
I also like RAX and icon tinge to buy on this big adjustment downward. I believe wholeheartedly in the cloud computing and RAX will be well positioned.
Thursday, February 21, 2013
The big news yesterday that seemed to cause the market some concern was that the minutes of the Fed meeting revealed a lack of unanimity in the current path of supporting the bond market with 85 billion per month in purchases.
While I agree with Gartmann that the purchase program is helping to underpin the stock market, I do not agree that they have changed course. It should not be surprising that there are conflicting opinions at the Federal Reserve. I do not believe that the program will end sooner than we thought and certainly not abruptly.
My thesis is that there will be pullbacks in equities but they will be shallow and represent an opportunity to buy. I am buying some in here now. Nothing has changed.
While I agree with Gartmann that the purchase program is helping to underpin the stock market, I do not agree that they have changed course. It should not be surprising that there are conflicting opinions at the Federal Reserve. I do not believe that the program will end sooner than we thought and certainly not abruptly.
My thesis is that there will be pullbacks in equities but they will be shallow and represent an opportunity to buy. I am buying some in here now. Nothing has changed.
Thursday, February 14, 2013
Just now, I sold my TLT position. My thesis has been that government bonds will still be a good hold because 1) overall economic growth will be slow ans 2) they offer the only true hedge for a stock portfolio.
While I still believe in the overall thesis, I have stronger conviction that stocks will be rising over the next few weeks and in that environment, bonds will struggle. I would look to buy again if we trade a bit lower. Today's rally in TLT gives me a chance to get out at a reasonable level.
While I still believe in the overall thesis, I have stronger conviction that stocks will be rising over the next few weeks and in that environment, bonds will struggle. I would look to buy again if we trade a bit lower. Today's rally in TLT gives me a chance to get out at a reasonable level.
Wednesday, February 13, 2013
Another opportunity today in a speculative name. RAX has fallen 20% despite turning in very respectable numbers. This on has a high PE ratio so it is not my usual buy recommendation, but as I have gotten to know this company a bit and the space it operates in, I have grown to like it more. I believe that cloud computing is here to stay and will only become more integral. This has all sorts of implications, but I think that RAX is well position as a small but early player in this market. AMZN is a big player and perhaps will be the dominant force but for now there is room for RAX. I have bought some here in the 60-61.7 range.
Big days for GE and LO. I wouldn't change anything here. Good holds.
S is edging up slowly. It still has down days but slowly the lows are getting higher. This stock still has 20% upside just from the deal and perhaps more as it makes some headway versus the big boys.
Big days for GE and LO. I wouldn't change anything here. Good holds.
S is edging up slowly. It still has down days but slowly the lows are getting higher. This stock still has 20% upside just from the deal and perhaps more as it makes some headway versus the big boys.
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