Thursday, May 17, 2012

Full, but orderly retreat from stocks.  No real places to hide except for long term government bonds and commodities.  I am not a big buyer of the commodity story as Gold doesn't really do anything for me.  I missed that boat early on and, just like 10 year govt bonds, it does not feel like it holds much value up here.

Buffett was recently said to have been cheering the market lower so he could buy his stocks more cheaply - picture me with an expressionless face here.  It never feels good to lose money, but I guess the point is that as long as you are not forced to sell then you don't have to book a loss.  Enter here a random diatribe  against leverage.  Don't borrow to get long stocks and you would avoid the majority of problems that investors (including professional ones) get into.

CAT is one stock that is not only going down but is underperforming the market as well.  I believe this to be happening because there is a global slowdown thesis being played out in the market.  This will probably continue until we get some evidence to the contrary.

Probably one of the simplest and most underrated indicators of market performance is how the market absorbs news.  If you have been in the market for any amount of time, you have borne witness to the odd phenomena when good news is met with a bad stock price movement and vice versa.  These are important signals.  It has been my experience that turning points come when bad news no longer hits stocks and the converse is true when good news fails to give stocks a further boost.  I'd say right now we are in a neutral to negative environment as the messages are mixed and the stocks keep going down.  When we get a bad piece of news and stocks stop reacting, then it will be time to build up some more stock longs.  Right now, unless you are very underinvested, then stay on the sidelines.


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