Tuesday, May 8, 2012

There are always persuasive stories for any viewpoint in the market.  Hence why the networks can always trot out a talking head for both a pro and con for any given situation.  While I think it is important not to be a polly ana and believe everything is ok, it is equally important not to try to invest for the end of the world.  The reality is if there is financial armageddon, there will be no safe place to hide as it would likely even be difficult to withdraw from the financial system.

Given that, it is key to not get too carried away with negative views and consider that most likely, the sun will rise tomorrow and if it doesn't then what difference did it make that you were all in cash!

With this perspective in mind, let's review the current situation:

Global growth is slow so that will impact future earnings, ok, but we are still growing overall.

There is too much debt, perhaps, but the market tends to adjust for this by demanding a higher return when the risk of non-repayment is higher.

I'd say the most interesting risk is the relationship between stocks and bonds.  It is certainly true that if rates go up, then stocks will be less valuable because the discounted value of future cash flows (i.e. the theoretical stock price) will be lower.  However, rates will only go up for three reasons:

Higher growth  - win for stocks
Higher inflation - generally a win for stocks over time as they ultimately have some pricing power
Higher assessment of required risk premium (i.e. higher real return) - no real winner here as bonds and stocks both go down.

As always, I would recommend not making any rash moves - always be incremental with your core portfolio.  If you want to make speculative bets, that is fine.  Just make sure speculation is kept to lower dollar amounts and try to decide ahead of time what your risk tolerance is.

I know a weakness of mine is to let losers run on too long.  It is easy to fall into this trap since if you loved a stock at 20, you REALLY love it at 15, right?  Well, perhaps, but remember that the market can stay irrational longer that you can stay solvent. So try to keep that activity to a minimum.  But if you find a company you can believe in and treats its investors well, then try to stick with it and build a position over time on weakness.




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