Monday, May 7, 2012

Hi all,

I posted results for my portfolio for  April.  The month started out on a downward path and recovered at the end to finish in positive territory.  My negative view on government bonds (specifically in the 10 year maturity) has been a bad mark on my portfolio.  Over the course of the month, I increased my stock bets taking advantage of some pullbacks to add to quality dividend payers.

My stock exposure is 40.5% which is a lot closer to my benchmark of 45%.  I will be looking to get a bit above the benchmark on pullbacks.  My credit exposure is about 31.7% but my overall bond bet is only 4% because I have sold government bonds in the 10 year maturity.

This weekend's election results in Greece and France while worrisome for fiscal conservatives will ultimately be good for equities and, someday, bad for government bonds.  US bonds will benefit short term from investors seeking a safe haven.  There is a higher chance now that the euro fails in the future, than there was last week.

I have believed that we are in a slow growth period and will be for some time.  While, I still believe US government bonds are not a good investment, I am moderating a bit on whether I should have such a large negative bet against them.  I may look to moderate that in the coming month.

In addition, I think we will get opportunities to buy equities cheaply.  Keep your eye on the prize.  The prize here is building a portfolio of good companies to be held for the long term.  You can always allocate a small part of your portfolio to speculation to keep you interested, but keep your core portfolio in mind.

I am no stock picker, but some of my favorites are:

CAT
CLX
KO
PG
LO
XOM
MRK
GE
ETN

On the speculative side, I like AMZN because they are so disruptive of the retail model.




1 comment:

J.Stein said...

I've heard this before! I add QCOM to the list.