Friday, May 31, 2013

Duration is the name of the game this past few days - as in don't get caught with any.  A quick primer for those not laden with arcane financial knowledge, interest rates are connected to bond prices through a mechanism labeled duration.  Generally speaking, the longer a bond's maturity, the longer it's duration.  Other factors come into play, for example. the lower the coupon, the longer the duration (all else equal).

Floating rate bank loans for example can be long in maturity 5-10 years, but have 3 month duration because the rates may be adjustable every 3 months.  The loan funds like VTA and VVR and BKLN have this feature and, assuming rates are going up because the economy is doing better, the yields will go up.

TLT and MHN for example are long duration funds and are getting hit as long term rates are rising due to recent speculation that the Fed will end it's bond purchases and other QE soon.

I am not so sure, but the market is the market and it is "right".  Anything with duration is getting hit.  That includes dividend paying stocks interestingly enough.  Especially utilities where their pricing power is limited by legislative rule.  So the XLU is down 2% this quarter where every other sector is up.

As always, I think moderation is the key.  Don't bet the ranch that rates are going up, or down.  Have a balanced portfolio and try to avoid selling on big down days and buying on big up days.

For me, the balance long term is about 45% equities/45 bonds and 10 cash.  I recently removed my hedges as they were not "hedging" (recall my blogpost about imperfect hedges).  Well, my S&P based hedges were not hedging my dividend heavy portfolio that was going down as the S&P stayed up.  So, I removed the hedge.  Right now, I am about 40% equities and about 30% in bonds.  I don't want to fight the trend in bonds right now, so if anything, I would look to trim my TLT if we get any up move.








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