Tuesday, May 14, 2013

Right now, I am not participating in any of this rally.  My exposure to equities is down to about 7% as I have started buying TLT on the move to 118.  I now have about 15% of my portfolio in TLT.

I want to make an important distinction between what I am doing (trading) and investing.

I am trading for volatility - meaning that I am looking to time the market's up and down moves and positioning myself accordingly.  Generally, markets don't move in such a simple way.  My best guess is that we are seeing the effects of the general investing public being underinvested in stocks.

Stocks are still the way to go and if one is investing for long term, then allocations should be at your target or more.

Right now, I feel I am trying to get too cute and time this market too much.  The reality is that the down moves have been small and the buying opportunities mercurial.  TSLA continues to mock me and goes up 10% a day.

Materials have still not rebounded and that if that holds that may be a troubling sign in terms of global growth.  Watch CAT as well.

My AUD (Australian dollar) idea has been working well - too bad I never got into it AAARGH.

Investing can sometimes be like batting as I have previously hinted. The game is mainly about getting up to bat and finding a way to hang in there.  Of course, also like hitting, there are hot streaks, and cooold streaks  - which is, I believe, where I find myself right now.  The good news is while I am not making money, I am not losing it either.  If we get a small down move I will get back in and bat again!

I still like rotating out of high yield bonds and into some of the loan products like BKLN or if you like a bit more risk (because there is leverage), VTA.

If there is anything in your portfolio you are negative on, then this is the type of market to get out of it.  You can always replace it with SPY or IWM (if it's a small company) in equal dollar amounts.  The downside may be paying taxes now (if it's in a taxable account), but you can weigh that against the potential downside.









 

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