Tuesday, February 5, 2013

Interesting article link:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1156721-an-investing-strategy-that-is-half-warren-buffett-and-half-nassim-taleb?source=intbrokers_regular

He gets the tax treatment wrong, I believe, (options have a fixed tax treatment independent of holding period), but he illustrates combining a low risk option strategy to get leverage with a bond portfolio that will protect on big down moves.

The only downside is it can be time consuming to do all the research.  This can be done at the index level as well with less time investment, but less targeting of stock picks, so you lose the "buffet-like" aspect.

I also like Bill Gross' commentary:

http://www.pimco.com/EN/Insights/Pages/Credit-Supernova.aspx

It may seem alarmist, but try to read through it to the key points.  Be ready to accept lower returns and be mindful of inflation.  Focusing on companies that produce and are well managed.  Leverage can lead to spectacular returns - BOTH up and DOWN, so be wary of it both on a personal and at the company level.

It is not easy for me to read through a commentary like his without the obvious question - where is the place to hide.  It is no surprise that the "prepper movement" is gaining followers.  Many individuals are very concerned with the potential for a breakdown of order that may accompany financial chaos.  I would counter that we have been through financial armageddon's before over the course of global and at a shorter scale, US history.  I feel strongly that order will hold and that it makes no sense to invest for the end of the world.  Going to all gold - aside from being a logistical nightmare (if you truly believed in chaos, you would have to keep the gold in your easy reach and it is HEAVY!), why would it really have any intrinsic value.  I would argue that shelter water and farmland are more valuable.

Right now residential real estate is a good buy.  Rental yields are better than they have been in a very long time and it is a natural hedge against inflation.  Buying stocks that have strong, steady cash flows and pay their shareholders are good buys.

I agree that there are some countries that could offer some good diversification and protection.  Canada and Australia come to mind.

I like TIPS despite being subject to the governments calculation of inflation, they offer some protection.  I am waiting for a bit better buying oppportunity.  The "breakeven yield" for the 30 year is currently about 2.7% (inflation would have to be higher than this to be better off in the TIPS).  Ideally I would like to see 2.25% or so, but I may have to settle for something below 2.5%.

I would differ from Gross in the shortening duration argument.  I just don't see any reason to hold the shorter maturities.  I believe the "Great Rotation" that is being talked about in the media will be out of cash which is very painful to hold.





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