Thursday, February 7, 2013

Sometimes, no posts for a while and then, 2 in one day!

I came across this one,

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1160071-profiting-from-the-financial-crisis-is-it-all-about-the-money

Very intriguing.  I agree that some may find the mortgage mess a moral quandary, but I feel that the working out of the problems does not have to be.  If we look to Japan, a key, if not THE, reason it has been in such doldrums for such a long time is that the government never let the banks work out their bad loan problems by selling them.  What our FED has done well, in my opinion, is pump in liquidity to let the banks work out their mess over time.  They are only recently starting to sell their bad loans and the system is not smooth.  I am on another side of this as well because I am buying properties from banks (talk about pulling teeth!).  But the good news, is that it WILL be worked out over time.  When a bank sells a loan, the new buyer is in a better position to work through it.  Options include, lowering the principal, lowering payments and in general working with the homeowners.  The companies that buy these loans want the homeowners to succeed as that will provide a better long term payout for the loan holders.

So, I find this PMT interesting and probably a good speculative bet ont he economy.  If you think we are working our way to the upside, then this will provide a leveraged way to profit from the improvement.  It is trading over book value, so be careful, but it is worth studying it and when you see a better price, jump in with a small spec bet.

Good luck

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