Friday, April 5, 2013

Bad number of course, so let's take stock:

Negatives:

-Global growth still not helping.  In fact US is probably the only engine right now (not new, really).

-Austerity on the fiscal side in Europe and the many in the US pushing for this as well.  This is counter-balanced with the loose monetary policy being run by the US and now Japan has joined in.

Positives:

Corporate health is excellent.  Continuing to become more efficient.

Bond yields are low.  This helps in repairing balance sheets.  I suspect this effect is mostly played out.  I don't think there is much more to be wrung out here.

I am BUYING down here.  Bringing my equity weight up above 40%.  I keep getting pummeled by RAX and AAPL - I must be a masochist, but I do believe in the stories here.  What I should do is bring their weight down to smaller impact, and replace it with S&P (SPY).

Equities are the best odds game in town.  Nothing guaranteed, of course, but the best odds.  Treasuries (long duration-TLT) still ok as the global growth picture is the dominant factor here.  The TLT has had a nice run up in the last few days, so there may be a pull back.  Unfortunately, I sold all of mine so I have none to sell.

If I need cash to buy stocks, I would sell some of the high yield (JNK,HYG) that have done relatively well here.











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