Wednesday, April 10, 2013

JCP is worth a spec buy down here.  We have absorbed a LOT of bad news.  This level has proven to be a base.  Of course, this could change if we get even more negative surprises on cash usage ("burn").

ANY bit of good news and the stock will be up 10-20%.  Short interest is high (so that will provide some upside if we get any good news).

There's a story about PIMCO raising their treasury weight to the highest it has been in a while.  I agree with this move though for myself, I would move further out the curve than the 10 year.

Rationale:

Economic growth will continue to be anemic as it is also undermined by weak global growth.  The "babble" you may hear about ending QE, is just that.  There is NO evidence that economic growth is coming back!!!  The Fed has emphasized that they want concrete evidence not "expected" growth, but actual growth.  The employment going down to 6.5% which is what they stated as being a goal of theirs will not be enough in and of itself.  If unemployment goes down because the denominator is going down (the number of people in the workforce) that is unsatisfying.  All that means is that there is a larger group of people that have given up looking for work.  That kind of improvement would be pernicious and long lasting.  Unfortunately, that is where we are heading and in that environment, 30 year treasury rates north of 3% are worth buying.  TLT below 117 is a good buy.  I will wait for that level again and look to buy a bit.

Better yet, I like buying well run companies that pay their shareholders.  They will continue to become more efficient and improve earnings even though top line growth won't be great.

Options continue to be a cheap way to hedge or gain exposure.




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