Tuesday, April 16, 2013

Basic Materials, mining companies, chemicals are down for the year (-4%) and for the quarter (-5%).  This sector along with oil and other energy related names are being affected by the slow down in global growth.  The latest news was China growth being a bit short of expectations (not that we should put too much emphasis on China numbers as they are suspect).

There are a lot of very good companies here that are being left behind so I find myself attracted to the idea of buying these.  there is probably a bit too much pessimism here.  For those looking at hedging the bet, buying TLT would be a nice contrast as low growth will ultimately lead to lower yields.  I would prefer to wait for a bit of a pullback in TLT (I'll be looking for a price around 118).  There is a bit of a premium from both the tragic Boston news and previous to that, Cyprus.

There is a bit of "feel" to spread trading.  One knows where to end up, but there are many ways to get there.  There is enough volatility in both components that there is ample reward for taking risk and doing one leg at a time.  If I were implementing this right now, I would buy the stocks first and look to buy the TLT when we get a bit of a rally in stocks, as I believe the bias for stocks is upwards right now.






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